Three years after ChatGPT stunned Silicon Valley and reshaped the global tech landscape, the chatbot that launched the AI boom is confronting its toughest moment yet.
While ChatGPT remains the most popular chatbot worldwide, new data shows its growth is slowing, competitors are closing the gap, and OpenAI’s financial challenges are raising serious questions about whether the startup can maintain its early lead.
ChatGPT’s User Growth Plateaus as Rivals Gain Momentum
According to analytics firm Sensor Tower, monthly usage of the ChatGPT mobile app has been flat since the summer. Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini — boosted by rapid feature releases and viral image-generation tools — is growing far faster.
- ChatGPT global monthly users (July–Nov): +5%
- Google Gemini users (same period): +30%
In key European markets, Deutsche Bank reports that paid ChatGPT subscriptions have stopped growing altogether.
Gemini now has 650 million monthly users, Google said in October.
Benchmark Tests Show Google Pulling Ahead
For nearly three years, OpenAI’s models dominated industry rankings measuring AI performance in:
- general knowledge
- math
- programming
- reasoning
But recent updates show Google has overtaken OpenAI in multiple benchmarks, including:
- Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index
- ARC-AGI, a measure of “general” AI intelligence
OpenAI’s once-commanding lead is now “narrow,” analysts say.
OpenAI’s Financial Reality: Huge Revenue, Even Bigger Losses
CEO Sam Altman said OpenAI generated over $13 billion in revenue in 2025. But with enormous spending commitments — particularly for chips, compute, and data centers — analysts believe the company is losing far more.
A Deutsche Bank report estimates:
- OpenAI may lose $140 billion between 2024 and 2029
- Losses exceed those of any startup in modern history
- Microsoft, Google, and Apple enjoy billions in quarterly profit — OpenAI does not
OpenAI has raised $57 billion so far — the most for any startup ever.
Analysts Warn OpenAI Could Become “the MySpace of AI”
Ross Hendricks of Porter & Co. said the risk is that OpenAI peaked early but cannot sustain its advantage:
“ChatGPT was the early winner, but they’re on track to end up like MySpace — unable to monetize and unable to break away from the pack.”
The warning reflects a growing fear among investors: if the AI boom cools or a funding bubble bursts, OpenAI may struggle to keep up with trillion-dollar tech giants.
Rivals Surge: Google, Anthropic, and Open-Source Models
Google:
Once seen as blindsided by ChatGPT, Google is now rebounding. Its Gemini model is improving quickly, bolstered by Google’s vast data, global distribution, and profitable cloud business.
Anthropic:
Founded by former OpenAI researchers, Anthropic has raised $47 billion and launched Claude models that rival ChatGPT in coding and analysis tasks.
Open-source AI:
Free models — while less capable — are improving fast and are widely used by companies seeking cheaper alternatives.
OpenAI Scrambles to Refocus: “Code Red” Memo
According to reports, Altman sent employees a “code red” memo, ordering the company to:
- focus on improving ChatGPT
- slow down work on experimental products
- accelerate core AI model development
This came after new launches like:
- Atlas, an AI-powered browser
- Sora, an AI video-sharing social network
failed to gain significant traction.
ChatGPT chief Nick Turley acknowledged the competition:
“New products are launching every week — it pushes us to move faster and keep raising the bar.”
Can OpenAI Stay Ahead in the Race It Started?
OpenAI’s challenge is enormous:
- It competes with trillion-dollar tech giants
- It must fund massive compute and chip investments
- It faces rising open-source alternatives
- Its product growth is slowing
- Its losses are unprecedented
As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted:
“No startup in history has operated with expected losses on this scale. We are in uncharted territory.”
OpenAI may yet develop profitable, world-changing AI tools — but for now, the company that ignited the AI revolution is facing a race it may no longer be leading.
