As the 2026 midterm elections approach, new polling and recent election results suggest potential headwinds for Republicans — and for President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings remain deeply underwater.
Democrats have overperformed in multiple recent elections, including sweeping state and local races on Nov. 4 and turning a traditionally safe Republican congressional district in Tennessee into a competitive contest. Although the GOP ultimately won the Dec. 2 special election, turnout appeared to rely heavily on Trump personally intervening in the race.
The question now: What do voters think of Trump as he leads the Republican Party into a pivotal election year?
Trump’s Average Approval Rating: Net Negative Across Major Trackers
Polling averages from RealClearPolitics and The New York Times show Trump with a net negative approval rating, continuing a downward trend that began in March.
RealClearPolitics tracking:
- Trump briefly held positive approval early in the year (50.5% on Jan. 27).
- Approval dipped below disapproval in mid-March.
- Hit a low of 45.1% around his 100-day mark.
- Reached a new term low of 42.3% on Nov. 14 amid controversy over Jeffrey Epstein’s emails.
- As of Dec. 4: 42.4% approve, 54.9% disapprove.
New York Times aggregator:
- Approval dropped from 52% in January to 44% in April, then held mostly steady.
- Term low: 41% approval (Nov. 12).
- Disapproval peaked at 56% on Nov. 19.
- As of Dec. 4: 42% approve, 55% disapprove.
How Trump Compares to Past Presidents
A Gallup survey conducted Nov. 3–25 found Trump’s approval at 36%, placing him below every modern president at this same point in their first year:
- Joe Biden (2021): 42%
- Trump (2017): 37%
- Barack Obama (2009): 51%
- George W. Bush (2001): 87%
- Bill Clinton (1993): 49%
- George H.W. Bush (1989): 70%
- Ronald Reagan (1981): 52%
Gallup notes Trump’s current November approval — across both his first and second terms — is the lowest of any modern president at that stage in office.
Republicans Sour on Trump in Latest Gallup Poll
Gallup’s November poll (Nov. 3–25) shows:
- Overall approval: 36% (down from 41%)
- GOP approval: down 7 points
- Independent approval: down 8 points
This marks Trump’s lowest approval of his second term in Gallup’s polling, though not far from his all-time low of 34% in 2021 after the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.
Trump performs best on crime, Gallup finds, and worst on healthcare.
Economist/YouGov: Net Approval Below -15 for Seven Straight Weeks
A separate Economist/YouGov poll (Nov. 28–Dec. 1) found:
- 38% approve
- 57% disapprove
- Net approval: –19 points
This is the seventh consecutive week in which Trump’s net approval has been –15 or worse — a sustained slump he did not experience in his first term. For comparison, Biden had 28 straight weeks at similar lows toward the end of his presidency.
A Warning for Republicans in 2026
Democratic overperformance — combined with Trump’s struggling approval numbers — suggests potential vulnerabilities for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms. The close Tennessee special election, in particular, is being read by analysts as a warning sign for the MAGA movement and a reminder that voter sentiment remains volatile.
